Even MS NOW Panel Admits: Beating Ken Paxton in Texas Would Be An ‘Uphill Battle’

On Saturday’s edition of The Weekend on MS NOW, a panel discussion about the Texas Senate race offered some surprisingly candid pessimism about the Democrats' chances.

The panel conceded that even with the more controversial Ken Paxton on the ballot, Democrats still face steep odds in Texas.

Jeff Mason of Bloomberg noted that at the end of the Obama administration, a "bunch" of his staff went to Texas with the goal of turning Texas purple, "and it didn't happen."  Mason acknowledged that Dems might have a better shot this time around with Talarico as their candidate, potentially facing Paxton, "But it's still tough." Ali Vitali agreed: "I'm not saying it's easy."

Co-host Eugene Daniels was even more blunt: "It's a better shot, sure, but it's gonna be, it's an uphill battle."

And co-host Jackie Alemany was particularly downbeat: "I'm with you, Jeff, on the eye-rolling to this perpetual conversation [about turning Texas purple or blue.] I always add that caveat when we talk about it here."

Alemany also acknowledged the Republicans' fundraising advantage, then added: "Which is a whole other conversation that we're gonna need to get into about [DNC chair] Ken Martin's fundraising prowess." That last word drew derisive chuckles from the panel.

The panel's pessimism is understandable. Democrat James Talarico, who would likely face Paxton, carries significant vulnerabilities that would turn off most Texans. Talarico has staked out aggressively progressive positions, including claiming that God is pro-choice and "non-binary.” 

Talarico is a strong supporter of LGBTQ+ causes, including transgender rights, and also holds extreme views on guns in a state with strong Second Amendment support. He backs universal background checks, red flag laws, and raising the purchase age for semi-automatic rifles. In 2020, he publicly supported an "assault weapon" ban — even though so-called “assault weapons” are functionally no different from most traditional semi-automatic rifles, aside from cosmetic features.

Those positions would make Talarico a difficult sell for most Texas voters in a general election.

This was a revealing moment of realism on MS NOW. Even with what they consider a weaker Republican nominee, the panel clearly believes winning a Texas Senate seat remains a heavy lift for Democrats. 

Here's the transcript.

MS NOW
The Weekend
5/23/26
7:19 am EDT

ALI VITALI: I just think that sometimes the politics and the reality of what would be good on the ground is not necessarily what the president does, because it doesn't comport with the agenda of, you're either with me or I'm against you.

EUGENE DANIELS: Yeah.

VITALI: And I think that's what we're seeing in Texas right now. Again, to double back to where we were, the idea that Cornyn is a stronger candidate in a general election than Ken Paxton is something I heard a lot when I was on the ground in Texas back in February.

The idea that some of the other candidates that he's put forward in midterm elections. He has had success in winning primaries, but you don't win in a primary, you win in a general.

DANIELS: Senator Herschel Walker!

VITALI: I was gonna say, he's a prime example of this. And so we've seen this time and again. The biggest difference here, and again, this is the central question, is Trump will never be on the ballot again. And so at what point do they realize that the political winds are different now? And maybe they aren't, and maybe they won't. 

JEFF MASON: But let's talk about Texas. I covered the Obama administration. At the end of the Obama administration, a bunch of the then president's, the then president's staff, went to Texas, had a big goal of turning Texas purple, said it was gonna happen within just a few years, and it didn't happen. 

So that doesn't mean that the Democrats don't have a better shot at perhaps picking up a seat in the Senate with this candidate and with Paxton as the Republican. But it's still tough. 

VITALI: I'm not saying it's easy. 

DANIELS: It's a better shot, sure, but it's gonna be, it's an uphill battle. 

MASON: Yes.

DANIELS: But it's about how much money and resources and time they have to have this battle in Texas.

MASON: Well, that's key.

JACKIE ALEMANY: I'm with you, Jeff, on the eye-rolling to this perpetual conversation. I always add that caveat when we talk about it here. But I had asked our PAs, Molly and Adriana, to do sort of like back of the math, back of the envelope math about how much the president has spent so far in these primary challenges. And there is sort of a feeling that it, it's not a zero sum game. There's that much money and they have that much of an advantage over Democrats, which is a whole other conversation that we're gonna need to get into about Ken Martin's fundraising prowess (derisive chuckles from the panel.)