Old Media has mostly ignored Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's poor showing among non-African-American voters, even though it was obvious way back in the early-March Ohio and Texas primaries. To the degree that there has been coverage of the situation at all, it has been presented as if there is something wrong with the voters, not Obama himself or his "message." Clay Waters at NewsBusters noted the most egregious example of this thought process ("Hillary Winning Too Many White Votes") when he reviewed recent coverage in the New York Times on Wednesday.
While at the same time decrying the injection of race into the campaign when anyone suggests that Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright's "white supremacy" shtick is relevant, Old Media is mere inches away from calling the vast majority of non-African-American voters in at least eight states racists, aren't they?
Here is how the last nine major primaries (with apologies to Rhode Island and Vermont) have gone for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Take a good look, because I don't think you'll see these stats anywhere else:
Sources:
- Vote percentages -- Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon.
- African-American (AA) percentages of population -- Wikipedia entries for the various states.
- AA percentage of total turnout -- Mostly from the FiveThirtyEight.com blog; most recent figures are best estimates based on previous primaries.
- Obama percentage of AA vote -- Mostly from "Democratic Exit Poll Results" at Fox News election coverage site; most recent figures are best estimates based on previous primaries.
- Obama percentage of non-AA vote -- Calculated considering other factors just described.
Of the nine states, all went to Bush in 2004 except PA and OR. Of course a lot can happen in 5-1/2 months, but Obama's horrible performance with non-African-Americans in every one of the Bush 2004 states would make them out of reach if the election were held today (except IN, which could be explained by a next-door-to-Illinois effect, and appears just as out of reach), and could swing Pennsylvania in the red-state direction. The fact that Obama's problem isn't present in Oregon, which is almost surely a Democratic presidential win no matter who is on the ballot, is of little significance.
It's unusual to have to admit that Hillary Clinton has a valid point about anything -- but she has a point when she talks about electability, and Old Media wants nothing of it.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
