Perhaps Politico might want to reconsider publishing polls conducted by pollsters with a background of extreme Trump Derangement Syndrome. Such polls do tend to be chock full of errors as was the case in the poll Politico published on Wednesday which was conducted by Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi who has a well earned TDS reputation leading to the suspicion that his polls reflect an obvious agenda.
In the case of the Amandi poll that Politico featured it shows Trump losing Florida despite polling irregularities and contradictory stats that are fairly easy to find. Before we get to the Politico story blaring that "Trump in trouble in Florida poll," let us take a look back at just one example of Amandi exhibiting his apparently incurable TDS:
This is from the September 15, 2018 edition of AM Joy.
FERNAND AMANDI: He has called us animals. He is now trying to deny the deaths of many citizens who live with great dignity. And, Joy, this is sending a very sinister message to Trump's base. What he's saying is, "These are not people, these are not even animals, these things didn't happen." It is modern-day Holocaust denial, Joy.
Politico’s Marc Caputo wrote:
Donald Trump is in trouble in Florida, a state that’s crucial to his reelection hopes.
Just 40 percent of Florida voters said they believed the president should be reelected, while 53 percent were opposed to a second term, according to a new Bendixen & Amandi International poll.
A reminder to readers that the Amandi referenced here is Fernand Amandi who in 2016 as a talk show host on WIOD radio in South Florida kept reminding the listeners every day until the election that Donald Trump had absolutely no chance of winning the election. Oh, and Amandi was terminated from that failed gig shortly after the election.
“Trump is in trouble,” pollster Fernand Amandi said, noting that 23 percent of all Florida Republicans said he doesn’t deserve reelection. “When that many people from your own party don’t support you, it means you have to spend more time consolidating your base.”
"Trump is in trouble." That sounds like the daily echo from Amandi on the radio right up until the 2016 election.
Biden would enter the Democratic presidential primary as the clear frontrunner in Florida, according to the poll. Biden is supported by 26 percent of Democrats, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 9 percent. The other 14 Democratic candidates and hopefuls barely registered. And 46 percent were undecided.
“Biden begins with a groundswell of support,” said Amandi. “Biden has a solid base of support that cuts across all demographics — age, race and ideology — in all corners of the state.”
Perhaps Amandi might have considered delaying his poll on the subject of Biden since the former vice president has lost significant ground among Democrats the past few days for daring to say something nice in passing about Mike Pence. He later backtracked but it was too late to soothe the feelings of irate Democrats.
The poll was taken a year out from Florida’s March 2020 primary and surveyed 602 voters overall. It has an error-%margin of +/- 4 percentage points and included an oversample of 300 Democrats.
Good to know upfront that the poll had an oversample of Democrats and that it is not surprising that it would lead one to believe that "Trump in trouble in Florida poll." Ironically, despite the declared conclusion of that poll, it actually has some very good news for Trump when you dig into the details of the poll which you can see here.
One number that sticks out in Amandi's own poll is the the percentage of Hispanics that have a favorable opinion of Trump. 40%. In 2016, Trump won 29 percent of the Hispanic vote and won Florida by over 100,000 votes.
Another poll stat that was easily fact checked and shown to be in error also spells good news for Trump in the Sunshine State. Amandi apparently thinks the state's population is much better educated that it really is since the Florida General Election Demographics of the poll claims that the share of college graduates it polled is 51 percent.
However, when you check the Statistical Atlas of Florida it reveals that the combined total of the state's population that received a bachelor's or higher degree is only at 28 percent, significantly lower than in the Amandi poll. Since Hillary Clinton did better than Trump among college graduates by about 10 points in 2016, you can see how that would skew Amandi's erroneous poll against Trump.
One should therefore read this Amandi poll with a very skeptical attitude. However, at least the poll has given hope to one group, namely the folks at the Democratic Underground who are celebrating its flawed results. If you want to see their celebrations in detail, you can check out the Video DUmmie FUnnies.