Failed Prognosticator Chris Cillizza Predicts 2018 Republican Doom

That great political genius Chris Cillizza of CNN has made a prediction that appears to spell doom for Republicans in the 2018 congressional elections. Okay, perhaps Cillizza did hilariously flop on his prediction of Donald Trump having near zero chance winning the presidency but this time he is armed with polls. Lots of polls to back up his contention that Here's why Republicans are in deep trouble in 2018:

There's a wave building in the country -- one that looks likely to threaten the Republican House majority come November 2018.

The signs are everywhere you look.

Yes, everywhere, Chris looks inside the Beltway media bubble is revealing signs of impending Republican doom:

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President Trump is at 37% approval nationwide
Democrats have a massive edge in the generic ballot, including a 14-point lead in the new CNN national poll
Deep divisions exist within the GOP between the Trump wing and the establishment wing

And as we have learned last year, the polls can never be wrong: “Political prognosticators are starting to take notice.”

Including Chris Cillizza, the greatest political prognosticator of them all who perfectly called the election last year...except for the final result.

The Cook report now rates 61 Republican-held seats as potentially competitive -- compared with 20 competitive Democratic seats.

Oh well, then the 2018 election is as good as over considering the Cook Report's accuracy in calling the election last year:

One of the most respected election handicappers in the country says the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is now “over,” with victory assured for Clinton, the Democratic nominee.

“Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.

“This race is OVER.”

Therefore the 2018 elections are OVER!

Cillizza proceeded to indulge in a political poll worship service, chock full of exact stats because, as we all know, the polls can't possibly be wrong:

...the winds have shifted in Democrats' favor. Among all adults in the new CNN poll, 51% say they would vote for a Democratic candidate while 37% say they would choose a Republican one. Among registered voters, a narrower sample of those more likely to vote, the margin is even larger: 54% Democratic, 36% Republican.

Democrats tend to have a three-to-five point edge on the generic ballot question. And yes it, is early. But such a wide margin in the generic ballot looks similar to October 2005 when Democrats had an eight-point edge; the party went on to pick up 30 seats and capture the majority from Republicans. It's also worth noting that Democrats' generic ballot edge in the CNN poll has never been below nine points since Trump became President.

Good. Then perhaps Cillizza's all too obvious wish fulfillment prognostication will come true and generic (but not real) Democrats will be elected to office. And speaking of a wish fulfillment prediction by Cillizza we need only travel back in time to almost exactly a year ago when Cillizza, along with Aaron Blake, gazed into their October 24, 2016 Washington Post crystal ball and determined that Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero:

The election is in 15 days. And the electoral map just keeps looking grimmer and grimmer for Donald Trump.

He has NO path to 270 electoral votes!

Clinton now has 323 electoral votes either solidly for her or leaning her way. Trump has just 180.

So Clinton has already won the election before it even happened.

Well, at least Cillizza learned his lesson about relying upon inaccurate polls...until he pulled an encore wish fulfillment prognostication performance last June:

Exit question: Will Cillizza the Prognosticator be the first person at CNN to report on the Russia uranium collusion scandal?


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2018 Congressional CNN.com Chris Cillizza