You might not want to rely on investment advice from the weekly financial and investment magazine Barron’s, judging by its bad market call regarding the expected opening week take of the Melania Trump documentary, which opened on Friday: “The Melania Movie Looks Like a Box-Office Flop. What It Means for Amazon.”
Reporter George Glover tried to project what Melania's expected box office failure might mean for Amazon.com, which paid to distribute and market the doc from director Brett Ratner. But the purported failure chain fell apart when Melania’s opening week busted box-office expectations (which ranged from $3-$5 million) by raking in an estimated $8.1 million, a huge opening for a non-concert documentary, attracting older conservative women despite wicked reviews.
When it comes to the streaming wars, investors have tended to see Amazon.com as an afterthought. The company’s new documentary about Melania Trump looks unlikely to change that.
Melania, which captures the first lady’s life in the 20 days leading up to President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, is expected to bring in $2 million to $5 million across 1,500 locations domestically this weekend, according to data from Boxoffice Pro.
At first glance, that’s a solid-enough opening weekend for a documentary—but it pales in comparison to what Amazon has spent on Melania. The online retailer bid $40 million to distribute the film and plans to pour another $35 million into marketing the movie, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
One mistake by Barron’s: Assuming that low attendance figures from the blue-city bubble could be reliably extrapolated nationwide.
But social-media users have made sure to point out how many opening weekend tickets have gone unsold. Empire 25 in New York City, one of AMC Entertainment flagship movie theaters, has sold 11 seats for its first screening, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, for instance.
Glover's wrap-up hinted that the anticipated box-office failure (oops!) lay in trying to appeal to controversial conservative audiences.
Still, if Amazon wants to compete with big dogs like Walt Disney and Netflix in the streaming wars, Jeff Bezos’ tech conglomerate might want to continue its push into live sports, which attract bigger audiences with less social-media pushback.
