Electoral conditions are getting so bad for the Democrat Party that on Monday morning, CNN’s New Day was forced to report on a new poll that shows African American voters are souring on the Democrat Party. While the party still wins a majority of black voters, the percentage that Republicans are projected to win is enough to make a difference in key states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.
The network’s senior data reporter Harry Enten was tasked with breaking the news to CNN’s dwindling audience on failed morning show New Day.
Breaking down the numbers, Enten reminded viewers that “black voters are the core part of the Democratic Party” but even though Democrats are “still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now” that is a lower percentage than the 84 percent in 2020 or the 85 percent in 2018.
“So you're clearly seeing right here there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African Americans,” Enten remarked.
In case CNN viewers were hoping those African American voters were simply moving to the independent column, Enten dashed those hopes and announced:
You can look at the Republican column as well, and you can see 12 percent, not exactly high but it was actually the high water mark. It was 9 percent in 2020, 9 percent in 2018. So basically what was a 75, 76 point margin is now down in the low 60s. So look Democrats are still well ahead with African Americans but in a game in which you're trying to drive up margins, the margin among African Americans for Democrats is clearly down.
A shocked and disappointed Brianna Keilar demanded to know “what's going on here?”
Enten explained that it all has to do with Biden’s unpopularity and that “if you go back to January to June of 2021, look how high it was. 87 percent.” Which is “basically matching what he got in the 2020 election.”
Yet, if you look at his support among African Americans now, “it’s all the way down to 64 percent.”
“Joe Biden's approval rating with all Americans is down. But it's not down by anywhere near this amount,” Enten noted.
A despondent Brianna Keilar then replied in horror: “that is a huge drop there.”
This segment was made possible by Liberty Mutual. Their information is linked.
To read the relevant transcript click “expand”:
CNN’s New Day
6:39:28 a.m. Eastern
BRIANNA KEILAR: New data is showing warning signs for Democrats ahead of the midterms, a key voting group that is considered reliably democratic does not seem as solidly blue as it once was. CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten is joining us now. So Harry, as we move into the midterms here you say we're actually seeing some real movement among a core democratic group.
HARRY ENTEN: Yes, so take a look here. This is black voters' electoral preferences in pre-election polling. Black voters are the core part of the Democratic Party. And as you can see here in the race for congress. Look, they're still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now but compare that to the final polling for 2020 President and 2018 Congress. In 2020 it was 84 percent, 85 percent in 2018.
So you're clearly seeing right here there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African Americans. You can look at the Republican column as well, and you can see 12 percent, not exactly high but it was actually the high water mark. It was 9 percent in 2020, 9 percent in 2018. So basically what was a 75, 76 point margin is now down in the low 60s. So look Democrats are still well ahead with African Americans but in a game in which you're trying to drive up margins, the margin among African Americans for Democrats is clearly down.
KEILAR: So, what's going on here? What's the cause of this?
ENTEN: There's a lot of things that could be going on. The truth of the matter is when you look across polling it's actually kind of hard to build up a large enough sample size to really dig into a lot of questions. But I think that this gets at the core part of it. Take a look at Joe Biden's approval rating among black adults. If you go back to January to June of 2021, look how high it was. 87 percent. 87 percent! Basically matching what he got in the 2020 election. But look at that approval rating now, in August and September of 2022, it’s all the way down to 64 percent. Obviously, Joe Biden's approval rating with all Americans is down. But it's not down by anywhere near this amount, this 23-point drop among all Americans it's only down about 10 to 15 points. So there is a disproportionate drop in Joe Biden's approval rating among African Americans and I think that's driving why you're seeing Democrats running for Congress getting a significantly lower margin than we're used to seeing.
KEILAR: Yeah, that's huge, that is a huge drop there. Are there any states where this might have more of an effect than other places?
ENTEN: Yeah so if we're looking at the battleground states, the states with close Senate or Governor races in 2022. Look at the black electorate. These are the states where it makes up a significant portion. Georgia the big one, look at that 33 percent. North Carolina, 23 percent. There's a key gubernatorial race there. Florida governor and senate race there 14 percent. Ohio 11 percent. Pennsylvania 10 percent, obviously a key gubernatorial and Senate race there. And in Nevada, where you might say there’s a state with a large Hispanic population, there’s also a large African American population as well. So if you look across the electoral map you're clearly seeing a lot of places where this black voter movement could have a significant thing that’s going on. The other thing I'll point out, talking about Georgia. Stacey Abrams, the Democrat running there, that should be a D. There we go. If you’re looking at Georgia what you should see if you compare the 2022 polling with 2018, Brian Kemp is clearly picking up ground overall, six points, his lead is six points larger. But among African American voters, look at that Stacy Abrams' lead is actually down from 79 points in the final 2018 polling to 67 points now. So in Georgia this key state where the black voters make up such a large portion of the electorate. You're seeing more movement among black voters away from the Democratic Party than you’re seeing overall.
KEILAR: And then lastly black voters aren't the only group right that’s considered usually Democratic reliably where Democrats seem to be struggling with them.
ENTEN: That's exactly right. This seems to be a problem across a lot of groups that are sort of umbrellaed under voters of color. Look at Hispanic voters' choice for congress, September of 2022, Democrats 54 percent. That's the same as it was in October of 2020, but it’s down significantly from November of 2018 when it was 60 percent. Look at Republicans, look at the support. 33 percent now. That is the high water mark. That margin and the choice for Congress was 34 points back in November of 2018, then it became 26 points and now it's just 21 points.
KEILAR: Wow, that is something. Harry, thank you so much for walking us through all of those numbers.