All the computer illiterates are convinced that because something is done on a "super computer" that costs "millions of dollars" it is infalliable. Pluging in biased, incomplete or flat out wrong data combined with poorly understood systems into a "model" that includes god knows how many guesses and assumptions will give you junk. Garbage in - Garbage out. I am a computer anaylst and can make a computer model do whatever I want by "tuning" it (adjusting variables until I get the answer I want). The more complex the model the more "mysterious" it seems. Processing more complex data in more complex ways via guessing gives you more complex junk results. But since the models have been "tuned" (guesstimated or deliberately altered to get the results you want) they get results that "seem" likely, except it is based on a complex serious of junk calculations.

The problem is computer models need exact information (data and the correct procedure to process the data) to get exact answers, without that you get crap, period. The public gives computer climate models this mystical aura because they are largely computer illiterate about how they actually work and when they hear the term "computer" they do not want to sound or feel stupid. Computers are logic machines, 1 + 1 must = 2.

Imagine trying to use the wrong numbers to get a right answer on a caculator but you do not know if you are to add or multiply those numbers.

What the modelers do is they keep playing with the numbers in a much more complex way until they think they guess right. A useless exercise. These same climate models computers are used to predict your weather and you know how accurate they are after 3-5 days out. But damn! Al Gore and Gavin Schmidt can certainly tell your what the climate will be 50-100 years from now! Give me a break.

Why are we not turning to models to predict the future for everything? Because they can't, not even remotely. Some of them work "sort of" for very short term results (3-5 days) until all the data they are processing that is wrong combined with all the data they are missing and the millions of variables they are not accounting for start to kick in exponentially and wham - the model is wrong. No kidding.

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

be a concert for global cooling - and I wanted to hear the Penquins sing!

There is no sense in being stupid, if you can't prove it! - my dad V

Let me see, James Hansen NASA scientist and AGW political gadfly and loudmouth in chief won an award from the Theresa Heinze Foundation for environmental work. She just happens to be the wife of John Kerry. He is really a tool for big ketchup. Any agenda there?

For your viewing pleasure! Its not even fully winter yet and still the Arctic is nearly froze over.  http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html

"When you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat"         R. Reagan

...and the U.N. is right on so many things...

v 

“Popular opinion is the greatest lie in the world.”  - Thomas Carlyle

AD,

Selective reporting would have not included the link to the article. Furthermore, skeptics don't deny the planet has been in a warming trend. We just don't believe man's responsible.

Honestly, if this is your level of understanding concerning this matter, maybe you shouldn't comment on this subject until you are more educated.

On the other hand, maybe you should make such errant observations whenever the fancy strikes you, as it deliciously proves the point as to why it's so easy for folks like Al Gore, Sheryl Crow, and Laurie David -- who possess not one iota of formal training regarding this matter -- to be able to pull the wool over so many eyes.

As such, fire at will. It explains so much! ns

How do you explain the medieval warming period? Cars and SUV's? Couldent have been man caused. And how about the following cooling period? Did we stop burning wood?

Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!

...this is nothing new.  For centuries priests, magicians, etc., have conned man into sacrifices and offerings to...bring the sun back!

No kinding check out the list of Winter Solstice ceremonies that have transpired over the ages.  Many people, animals, and offerings were given up beacuse people were convinced the sun was dying and only through "giving" up stuff could they survive.

Sound familiar?  You bet.  And of course it worked, 'cause every year the sun revived!  Imagine that.

v

Yeah, logic, reason, facts play less of a role now in the way we make decisions in America. – Al Gore

Luna:

The only problem with that theory is the chances of carbon output going down in the next 30 years is essentially NIL.  What would they be able to stand on to crow?  However, if they manage to get the policies in place i.e. put the socialist schemes like Kyoto in place using things like the pre-cautionary principle, etc., good luck removing them.  DDT and the chrysotile asbestos have been banned based on manufactured data, factoids and pseudocrisis probably never to return despite the benefits to society.  Once carbon taxes or caps get in place gov'ts will become addicted to them and the anti corporate crowd will crow about the earth on life support and they'll never go away.  That is why this has to be fought now.  Unfortunately, very little of the populace understands the science.  It'll never be won on the science side.  The warmers avoid debates in science because they can't win.  Therefore, it must be fought in the political arena on the basis of how it attacks personal freedoms and personal wealth.  The warmers know this.  Hence their political positioning with the Democrats.  If this gets into place, the cost, and not just financial, to every person will be one of the largest we've ever experienced.  

Regarding politicians, I refer to a friend of mine who is a politician.  He said to me in confidence.  We were speaking in reference to global warming;  "There are 2 kinds of politicians.  Those who know AGW is a scam and those who are stupid.".

 I LOVE that comment.

*Argue for your limitations and sure enough you will achieve them.