Victoria Stilwell

Business Press Exaggerates November Existing-Home Sales Plunge by (As Usual) Ignoring Raw Data
By Tom Blumer | December 22, 2015 | 12:57 PM EST

The business press worships at the altar of seasonally adjusted data. Most journalists covering the economy don't even bother looking at raw, not seasonally adjusted data, which in layman's terms is best understood as "what actually happened." As I have shown for nearly a decade, this is often a big mistake.

On the rare occasions when reporters take the initiative to look at the raw data, they usually ignor it, or fail to grasp its meaning. A perfect example of that phenomenon occurred today at Bloomberg News. The business press is blindly accepting a reported 10.5 percent drop in existing home sales as evidence of all kinds of problems, including — supposedly, but not really — a regulation-driven extension of closing time frames. Though Bloomberg's Victoria Stilwell was astute enough to look at the underlying data, unlike her fellow reporters at the Associated Press and Reuters, she completely ignored how doing so blew up the narrative.

Sorry, Reuters: Wednesday's Homebuilding News Did Not 'Signal Economic Strength'
By Tom Blumer | December 16, 2015 | 11:51 PM EST

Reuters and reporter Lucia Mutikani went way overboard today in reacting to today's residential construction news from the Census Bureau.

Mutikani's headline contended that today's "housing data signals economic strength," while a section title claimed that there are "strong housing fundamentals." That can only possibly be true if one believes the world began in 2007.

'Unexpectedly' Again: Pending Home Sales, Predicted to Rise, Fall 1.8 Percent
By Tom Blumer | July 29, 2015 | 3:46 PM EDT

Yet another important economic statistic confidently predicted to rise has fallen — hard.

This time it was June's pending sales of existing homes. Just in time for summer, they were predicted to increase by a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent to 1.5 percent. Instead they fell by 1.8 percent, the steepest drop since December 2013. Additionally, May's original 0.9 percent increase was revised down to 0.6 percent. This brought out yet another appearance of the dreaded "U-Word" ("unexpectedly") — accompanied, as usual, by excuses delivered by Victoria Stilwell at Bloomberg News (bolds are mine):

Bloomberg Reporter Bases 'Factories Making a Comeback' Story on a Survey, Ignoring Horrible Contrary Data
By Tom Blumer | July 6, 2015 | 11:55 PM EDT

As I was looking for news coverage of Thursday's horrid factory orders report from the Census Bureau late last week, I came across an incredibly optimistic Blomberg News report by Victoria Stilwell.

The headline of her story on July 1, the day before that factory orders release, read: "Factories Making a Comeback as U.S. Domestic Demand Picks Up." My reaction: On what planet? It turns out that Stilwell based her assessment on largely on a survey, namely the June Manufacturing Index published by the Institute for Supply Management earlier that day.

Business Press Mostly Fails to Note that Industrial Production Has Not Advanced for Six Straight Months
By Tom Blumer | June 15, 2015 | 2:06 PM EDT

Today's release from the Federal Reserve on industrial production (including mining and utilities) told us that it declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in May. It was the sixth consecutive month showing a decline or no gain, during which time output has fallen by 1.1 percent (not annualized).

Bloomberg News, which reported that economists and analysts expected an increase of 0.2 percent, described the result as "unexpected." Reuters gave us the adverb version of the U-word: "U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell in May." In covering the news, Associated Press reporter Josh Boak failed to note the length of the protracted slump, and even went into a light version of "Happy Days Are (Still, Probably, We Really Hope) Here Again," using a sentiment survey to argue against the hard information collected by the Fed.

Press Takes Artificially Pumped Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Growth As Gospel
By Tom Blumer | June 14, 2015 | 11:41 PM EDT

On Thursday, the Census Bureau's report on May retail sales said that seasonally adjusted sales came in 1.2 percent higher than April. The press almost universally cited that result as demonstrating that the economy's rough patch earlier this year is likely over.

Yours truly and the contrarians at Zero Hedge both noted that the result is highly suspect, and doesn't adequately reflect the raw data behind it. The business press won't question it, because it hardly ever bothers to look at the raw data.

Bloomberg's Stilwell Really Wants to Blame the Disastrous Dec. Durable Goods Report on the Weather
By Tom Blumer | January 28, 2014 | 11:12 AM EST

There was another appearance of the dreaded U-word ("unexpectedly") this morning at Bloomberg News.

The Commerce Department's advance report on December durable goods orders and shipments showed a seasonally adjusted 4.3 percent decrease in orders from November, while November was revised down from a positive 3.4 percent to 2.6 percent. Economists' median prediction for December was for a 1.8 percent increase. Bloomberg's Victoria Stilwell had an excuse at the ready, and as will be seen, chose to use it even though she knew it was a stretch (bolds are mine throughout this post):