Josh Boak

AP Continues to Push Artifically Low 'New Normal' Benchmark For New-Home Sales
By Tom Blumer | December 23, 2015 | 1:28 PM EST

The Census Bureau reported today that new-home sales in November came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000. That was a 4.3 percent increase over October, but it only occurred because October was revised steeply downward by 25,000 to 470,000; August and September were also revised slightly downward. Actual sales were 34,000, the highest November figure during the Obama era but lower than all but three other years since 1970, all during recessions.

It has become painfully clear during the past seven years that the homebuilding industry won't genuinely recover as long as the current reckless Obama fiscal policy and its red tape-infused regime of regulations are in place. So what can an economics writer at the Associated Press, aka the Administration's Press, do to make a "recovery" look at least plausible? Josh Boak's answer: Lower the bar.

Sorry, Reuters: Wednesday's Homebuilding News Did Not 'Signal Economic Strength'
By Tom Blumer | December 16, 2015 | 11:51 PM EST

Reuters and reporter Lucia Mutikani went way overboard today in reacting to today's residential construction news from the Census Bureau.

Mutikani's headline contended that today's "housing data signals economic strength," while a section title claimed that there are "strong housing fundamentals." That can only possibly be true if one believes the world began in 2007.

AP's Boak Says New-Home Sales 'Recovered' In October; No They Didn't
By Tom Blumer | November 28, 2015 | 10:16 AM EST

On Wednesday, the Associated Press's Josh Boak added to the wire service's collection of weak "Getaway Day" business journalism by declaring that new-home sales "recovered in October."

No they didn't. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 495,000 units reported by the Census Bureau was the fourth-lowest monthly level seen this year, even well below the 521,000 and 545,000 reported in the supposedly unprecedentedly awful winter months of January and February, respectively. Boak also claimed that "Americans recovered much of their appetite for owning new homes this year," even though current levels are at best about 70 percent of what one would expect in a pre-"new normal" healthy market.

AP's Boak: Consumer Confidence Drop Occurred Despite 'Strengthened' Economy
By Tom Blumer | November 24, 2015 | 3:09 PM EST

There was yet another sighting of the U-word ("unexpectedly") in connection with disappointing economic news today.

Bloomberg News, which most frequently employs the word, told readers that "Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in November to the lowest level in more than a year as Americans grew less enthusiastic about the labor-market outlook." Expectations were that confidence would increase from October's value of 99.1 to between 99.6 and 101.0, not drop like a rock in just one month by almost 9 percent to 90.4. Over at the Associated Press, aka the Administration's Press, Economics writer Josh Boak clearly wanted his readers to believe that the news was a one-off "curveball" in an economy which he contended "has strengthened by many measures over the past month." All one can say is that he must not be looking at the same economy as the rest of us.

Typical Media Miss: Actual Year-Over-Year October Existing Home Sales Up Just 1 Pct., Not 4 Pct.
By Tom Blumer | November 23, 2015 | 1:56 PM EST

Gosh, this gets tiresome.

Once again, with one noteworthy exception, the business press's virtually blind acceptance of seasonally adjusted economic data, and its accompanying refusal to look at the underlying raw data, led it to paint a deceptive picture of an important element of the economy. This time, it was existing home sales for October. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for October reported by the National Association of Realtors this morning is almost 4 percent higher than seen in October 2014. The trouble is, the raw sales data show an increase of less than 1 percent.

AP Pair 'Fact Checks' an Achieved Goal and a Completely True Statement
By Tom Blumer | November 12, 2015 | 11:55 PM EST

The "fact-checking" press has become a parody of itself during the past several years.

It's not only because of their irritating penchant for putting statements by Republicans and conservatives under a twisted microscope while ignoring drop-dead obvious falsehoods delivered by Democrats and leftists. It's because, among other things, the fact-checkers often admit that a statement is true, but then proceed to essentially say, "So what?" They also take policy goals articulated by candidates, which may or may not come to pass, render an opinion that it can't be done, and then pretend that they've actually proven something. An example of each annoying habit was found in Tuesday evening's Associated Press "fact check" of statements made by Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush during the most recent Republican presidential candidates' debate.

AP Pair's GOP Debate 'Fact Check' Promotes Minimum-Wage Fiction
By Tom Blumer | November 12, 2015 | 10:58 AM EST

Tuesday evening, Associated Press economics writers Christopher Rugaber and Josh Boak attempted to "fact check" statements made by candidates at the just-completed Republican presidential debate.

Claiming that "The fourth Republican presidential debate was thick on economic policy — and with that came a variety of flubs and funny numbers," the two writers botched at least half of the six points they tried to make. Their most obvious economic error concerned the impact of minimum-wage increases (I will cover two others in a future post):

AP's Boak Minimizes Seriousness of Recent Declines in Pending Home Sales
By Tom Blumer | October 30, 2015 | 11:22 PM EDT

Here's what should be an easy question: With data which has already been seasonally adjusted, what's more important — a) the fact that an index is a) up by 3 percent in the past year or b) the fact that it has fallen 5 percent in the past four months?

The correct answer is obviously b) — unless you're a writer for the Associated Press whose mission is to convince readers that the housing market, despite clear evidence to the contrary, is just fine. Therefore, the AP's Josh Boak chose a):

AP Writeup on Steep September New Home Sales Drop Omits Key Facts
By Tom Blumer | October 26, 2015 | 11:31 PM EDT

Today saw yet another "unexpected" disappointing development in the U.S. economy. The Census Bureau reported that seasonally adjusted sales of new homes, an area thought to be a bright spot, declined sharply in September to an annual rate 468,000 from 529,000 in August. The bureau also revised July and August significantly downward.

As bad as the as the adjusted numbers were, the raw data was even worse. Despite all of this, and despite the fact that the pace of new-home sales is still only about two-thirds of what it used to tell readers would be a "normal" or "healthy" level, the Associated Press's Josh Boak, apparently taking a double shot from today's good-news koolaid delivery, tried to pawn off today's result as a one-off interruption of what has otherwise been a year where "zeal for newly built homes took off."

Not News at AP: Pending Home Sales Index Hits Lowest Level in 5 Months
By Tom Blumer | September 29, 2015 | 10:15 AM EDT

August's seasonally adjusted Pending Home Sales Index value contained in the related press release from the National Association of Realtors was the lowest in the past five months, and 2 percent below April's level.

Disclosing the size of the recent slump apparently wasn't considered important at the Associated Press, aka the Administration's Press. What was news at AP, whose Josh Boak essentially copied NAR's release and added standard boilerplate about job growth instead of engaging in informative journalism, is that the index is up by over 6 percent from a year ago, even though that increase ended several months ago.

AP's Boak: With the Economy So Good, Why Won't Fed Raise Rates?
By Tom Blumer | September 19, 2015 | 10:51 PM EDT

The business press just can't understand why the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates on Thursday. After all, these alleged journalists have been telling us for months bordering on years that U.S. economy is really in good shape. So it should be able to handle a rate hike, especially after over seven years of rates at essentially zero. The problem is that they now believe their own bogus blather. The U.S. economy is not in good shape, and data seen during the past several weeks show that the situation is deteriorating, not improving.

Excerpts from an early Friday report at the Associated Press by Josh Boak illustrate how out of touch the business press really is (bolds and numbered tags are mine):

Delusional AP Report on Retail Sales Celebrates 'Surges' in Spending
By Tom Blumer | September 15, 2015 | 10:17 PM EDT

Shortly after its release this morning, Josh Boak at the Associated Press posted his coverage of the Census Bureau's August retail sales report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, August's sales came in a very mediocre 0.2 percent greater than July.

It's almost too kind to say that Boak's writeup was delusional. The AP reporter celebrated "surges" in spending, "fed ... by solid and steady job gains" that will "sustain U.S. economic growth." He missed an important clue, downplaying the significance of "a possible pullback in the housing sector's momentum" — not that there has been all that much momentum anyway.