Ian Shepherdson

Business Press Mostly Fails to Note that Industrial Production Has Not Advanced for Six Straight Months
By Tom Blumer | June 15, 2015 | 2:06 PM EDT

Today's release from the Federal Reserve on industrial production (including mining and utilities) told us that it declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in May. It was the sixth consecutive month showing a decline or no gain, during which time output has fallen by 1.1 percent (not annualized).

Bloomberg News, which reported that economists and analysts expected an increase of 0.2 percent, described the result as "unexpected." Reuters gave us the adverb version of the U-word: "U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell in May." In covering the news, Associated Press reporter Josh Boak failed to note the length of the protracted slump, and even went into a light version of "Happy Days Are (Still, Probably, We Really Hope) Here Again," using a sentiment survey to argue against the hard information collected by the Fed.

BusinessWeek Recap: How Expert Forecasts Shaped Up in 2007
By Jeff Poor | December 28, 2007 | 4:54 PM EST

BizWeek

Are you a little skeptical when an economist or a financial strategist appears in the MSM, warning for the worst?

A look back at the Dec. 25, 2006, “Where to Invest” issue of BusinessWeek gave us a measuring stick to see how frequently cited “experts” shaped up in 2007 – including New York Times regular Ian Shepherdson, Moody’s Economy.com economist Mark Zandi and Standard & Poor’s Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall.

BusinessWeek surveyed 80 investment strategists about where the stock market would be at the end of 2007, and 58 economists on where gross domestic product (GDP) would be at the end of 2007.