Not coming to a media outlet near you: Kevin Trenberth, an advisor to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made some startling admissions regarding the IPCC's use of computer General Circulation Modules (GCMs) (h/t Moonbattery). Professor Bob Carter, a geologist writing for Australia's News.com, has the scoop:
In a remarkable contribution to Nature magazine's Climate Feedback blog, Trenberth concedes GCMs cannot predict future climate and claims the IPCC is not in the business of climate prediction. This might be news to some people.
Among other things, Trenberth asserts ". . . there are no (climate) predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been". Instead, there are only "what if" projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.
You do remember that the IPCC has been leading the charge with Al Gore on the whole "scientific consensus" on man-made global warming.
Carter also relates that in a paper to be presented at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting in New York this week, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green find other discrepancies within the relevant chapter in the IPCC's latest report. They conclude:
"because the forecasting processes . . . overlook scientific evidence on forecasting, the IPCC forecasts of climate change are not scientific".
Carter sums it up:
These various criticisms of climate modelling can be summed up in the following statement – there is no predictive value in the current generation of computer GCMs and therefore the alarmist IPCC statements about human-caused global warming are unjustified. Yet Australia has an Opposition and a Government that profess to set their climate policies on the basis of IPCC advice. Both also seem determined to impose an inefficient, ineffective and costly carbon trading or taxation system on the economy, for the aspirational absurdity of "stopping climate change".
Will our media ask Al Gore about this latest speedbump on the road to a more harmonious climate? Since the Live 8 concerts are coming up (with NBC Universal devoting a total of 75 hours gratis to their coverage), the opportunity is ripe for the picking.
But I have a feeling this is an opportunity that will be left to wither on the vine.