Stimulus

Japan's Retail Sales Dive; Press, Pundits Want Even More 'Stimulus'
By Tom Blumer | April 28, 2015 | 12:47 PM EDT

Japan just reported yet another awful retail sales result. Though it far exceeeded predictions of a 7.3 percent fall, the 9.7 percent March 2015 plunge compared to March 2014 doesn't reveal much, as March 2014 saw a splurge at the stores ahead of a steep sales tax increase which took effect on April 1. The really telling figure is the 1.9 percent seasonally adjusted dive compared to February.

Proving once again that they haven't learned, and probably never will, the press and financial commentators are really hoping that the government will respond, after two decades of Keynesian deficit spending and quantitative easing which have given the country slow growth, several recessions and a dispirited populace, with (good heavens) more stimulus.

AP's Crutsinger Ignores Recession Red Flag, But Has Obsessed Over Potential Recessions During GOP Administrations
By Tom Blumer | April 24, 2015 | 10:52 PM EDT

Today's Census Bureau report on durable goods orders was like a poorly made cake with delicious frosting: tasty at first, but awful when fully experienced.

The frosting in today's report was that overall orders increased in March by a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent. The trouble is that an important, widely recognized element of that report — what the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger vaguely described as "a key category that serves as a proxy for future business investment" — came in with yet another minus sign. That category's 0.5 percent decline, though noted, had far more significance than Crutsinger gave it.

Press Takes to Calling Japan's Most Recent Very Real Recession 'Technical'
By Tom Blumer | April 22, 2015 | 3:00 PM EDT

So when is a recession not a genuine recession? Apparently when it's "technical."

Unfortunately, the term "technical recession" appears to be well on the way to devolving into what has long been considered the real definition of a recession for the purpose of discounting its validity.

In Low-Visibility Report, AP's Crutsinger Masks Spike in Federal Spending
By Tom Blumer | April 14, 2015 | 2:01 PM EDT

Late Monday afternoon, the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger produced a typically dodgy dispatch on the government's Monthly Treasury Statement. The Treasury Department released the March version of that report covering the first six months of the current fiscal year early Monday afternoon.

The odd thing is, while it has been published elsewhere at the web sites of certain of its subscribers, a search on "budget deficit" (not in quotes) at the wire service's national site indicates that it's not present there at all. The national site's only mention of March's deficit is in the sixth of 13 listings at a "Business Highlights" summary. It reads as follows (bolds are mine throughout this post):

Press Ignores Obama's Bogus 'Mea Culpa' on Length of Economy's 'Recovery'
By Tom Blumer | April 12, 2015 | 2:38 PM EDT

Imagine if a Republican or conservative U.S. president told an audience — on foreign soil, no less — that he didn't properly warn Americans about how long it would take for the economy to recover from a recession. "So-and-so Admits He Lied About the Economy" would be headlined everywhere.

At the University of the West Indies in Jamaica on Thursday, President Barack Obama essentially admitted that the he knew that the economic recovery would take far longer than advertised, but chose not to tell us. There's no other way to interpret the following answer to a student's question seen in the video following the jump. But somehow, this isn't news.

AP Covers Up Japan's Likely Slippage Into Another Economic Contraction
By Tom Blumer | April 8, 2015 | 10:39 AM EDT

In an early Wednesday morning report containing an undercurrent of amazement and frustration that Japan's journey into Keynesianism and quantitative easing on steroids somehow hasn't worked, the Associated Press's Elaine Kurtenback wrote that a steep "April 1, 2014 sales tax hike ... triggered a brief recession and growth since has been flat."

The Land of the Rising Sun with the long-stagnating economy should be so lucky. Six days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported something Kurtenbach should have known when she submitted her writeup, namely that the country is once again on the brink of slipping into contraction:

Whiplash at AP: Economy, 'Really Durable' Last Week, Now 'Has Been Flagging For Months'
By Tom Blumer | April 4, 2015 | 10:27 AM EDT

Chickens came home to roost yesterday at the Associated Press.

The AP, the economy's most consistent cheerleader when a Democrat is in office, has not only been ignoring and downplaying the significance of disappointing and negative reports for several months, pinning its claim that all is well on the streak of seasonally adjusted 200,000-plus job gains seen during the past 12 months. It has also been pretending that all is really well. Just a week ago, the wire service's Marin Crutsinger falsely touted how the economy's "growth spurt" since the recession ended 5-1/2 years ago, while "sluggish," has been "one of the most durable since World War II."

AP Admits: 'Economy Is Looking a Bit Paler'
By Tom Blumer | March 17, 2015 | 11:15 PM EDT

Apparently, the sheer number of weak to awful economic reports seen during the past month or so finally led Josh Boak at the Associated Press, aka the Administration's Press, to acknowledge that "critical pieces of the economy remain troubled almost six years into the recovery."

Boak's belated timing is interesting, to say the least, given that the Federal Reserve is weighing whether or not to raise interest rates for the first time in six years several months from now.

Imagine That: U.S. Leads World in 'Unexpectedly' Bad Economic News
By Tom Blumer | March 14, 2015 | 10:26 AM EDT

The only surprise should be that anyone is surprised.

Those who are used to how frequently the word "unexpectedly" appears in reports about disappointing economic data certainly won't be at all shocked at a Friday Bloomberg News report by Steve Matthews and A. Catarina Saraiva telling readers that "U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators' expectations by the most in six years." The report has three problems. First, it treats the latest U.S. jobs news as an upside surprise, when it's really the result of difficult-to-justify seasonal adjustments. Second, it acts as if the appearance of lots of downside surprises in key areas is a recent phenomenon. Finally, it fails to explain a likely underlying cause, namely that Keynesian-trained economists and analysts can't imagine that their models might be misleading them.

Another Month, Another Selective AP Federal Deficit Report
By Tom Blumer | February 11, 2015 | 9:54 PM EST

The federal government today reported a $17.5 billion budget deficit for January. That brings this fiscal year's shortfall through four months to $194.2 billion, up from $182.8 billion during the same period last year.

As usual, the Associated Press's coverage, this time delivered by Martin Crutsinger, named the nation's "Worst Economic Writer" by National Review's Kevin Williamson two years ago, gave an incomplete historical explanation for the $1 trillion-plus annual deficits incurred from fiscal 2009 through 2012, and "somehow" forgot that President Barack Obama, who is demanding higher taxes in the budget he recently submitted, already got a significant tax increase on higher incomes just two years ago. Excerpts follow the job:

For Once, AP Is Somewhat Skeptical of Dems' Over-the-Top Claims About the Economy
By Tom Blumer | January 30, 2015 | 9:30 PM EST

Even Charles Babington at the Associated Press, for once not the completely beholden Administration's Press, seemed to be having a hard time buying what Democrats at a meeting in Philadelphia were selling. Unfortunately, he decided to let Joe Biden's direct contradiction of his party's congressional delegation's sunnyside-up stance on the economy go unreported.

In a video carried at the Weekly Standard, Biden said, "To state the obvious, the past six years have been really, really hard for this country, And they've been really tough for our party. Just ask [former DCCC chair] Steve [Israel]. They've been really tough for our party. And together we made some really, really tough decisions -- decisions that weren't at all popular, hard to explain." Despite how "really, really hard" it has all been, the party is attempting an "in your face" at those who want to claim that it has been that way because of the Obama administration's economic policies. Excerpts from Babington's AP report follow the jump (bolds and numbered tags are mine):

Mario Cuomo in 1984: High on Passion, Low on Accuracy
By Tom Blumer | January 2, 2015 | 7:29 AM EST

Former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, who died on Thursday, is predictably being lionized today by USA Today's Aamer Madhani "as (a) giant in political rhetoric," and by others elsewhere in similarly glowing terms.

Madhani goes on to characterize the three-term Empire State chief executive's 1984 Democratic Convention speech in San Francisco as "what is widely considered one of the finest pieces of political rhetoric in recent memory." That it probably was. But he also calls it "a full-throated rebuttal of President Ronald Reagan, who would go on to a landslide victory over the Democratic nominee Walter Mondale." On that, Madhani is absolutely wrong. It was an attempt at a rebuttal which has since been thoroughly refuted and discredited.