Recession

AP's Josh Boak Does Bogus 'Fact Check' on Jeb Bush's 4 Percent Growth Goal
By Tom Blumer | June 17, 2015 | 11:41 PM EDT

It seems as if the establishment press has ruined virtually everything connected with journalism. The whole idea of "fact-checking" is certainly no exception.

The thoroughly misnamed Politifact pioneered this particular form of disinformation. The Associated Press, apparently determined to give that web site a run for its money, devoted a writeup to "fact-checking" (i.e., virtually ridiculing) a goal, namely 2016 presidential candidate and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush's belief that the U.S. economy is fully capable of achieving annual growth of 4 percent — even though it's been done before nationally, and was accomplished in the Sunshine State during Bush's own tenure.

Business Press Mostly Fails to Note that Industrial Production Has Not Advanced for Six Straight Months
By Tom Blumer | June 15, 2015 | 2:06 PM EDT

Today's release from the Federal Reserve on industrial production (including mining and utilities) told us that it declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in May. It was the sixth consecutive month showing a decline or no gain, during which time output has fallen by 1.1 percent (not annualized).

Bloomberg News, which reported that economists and analysts expected an increase of 0.2 percent, described the result as "unexpected." Reuters gave us the adverb version of the U-word: "U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell in May." In covering the news, Associated Press reporter Josh Boak failed to note the length of the protracted slump, and even went into a light version of "Happy Days Are (Still, Probably, We Really Hope) Here Again," using a sentiment survey to argue against the hard information collected by the Fed.

Bloomberg News Still Thinks the U.S. Is in a Six-Year Economic Expansion
By Tom Blumer | May 30, 2015 | 10:52 AM EDT

This shouldn't be a trick question, but to the nation's establishment press business reporters it apparently is: What is the current length of the U.S. economy's expansion?

The answer, after yesterday's reported 0.7 percent annualized contraction in U.S. Gross Domestic Product, is obviously zero. But that's not what Bloomberg News and reporter Sho Chandra, who has used her full first name of Shobhana in previous reports, would say. Despite three separate quarterly contractions since the recession officially ended in the second quarter of 2009, they, like the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger two months ago, want us to believe a fairy tale, namely that we're still closing in on six straight years of expansion.

AP's 'Three Amigos' of Econ Reporting Differ in Recognizing Harsh Reality
By Tom Blumer | May 6, 2015 | 3:50 PM EDT

Tuesday evening, I wrote that there appears to be a need for an intervention among the economics writers at the Associated Press.

At the time, I was referring to how the wire service's Christopher Rugaber, in his dispatch on a trade group's upbeat business sentiment survey appearing about an hour after Martin Crutsinger's writeup on the horrible March trade imbalance, failed to report Crutsinger's relayed observation, based on the opinions of others, that the economy likely contracted in this year's first quarter instead of barely growing at the 0.2 percent annualized rate currently recognized.

At AP, 1.9 Percent 2nd-Quarter Growth Would Be 'A Significant Rebound'
By Tom Blumer | May 4, 2015 | 6:14 PM EDT

At the Associated Press today, Martin Crutsinger's coverage of the Census Bureau's March Factory Orders report admitted that a leading economic forecasting firm currently believes that the economy will grow at an annualized rate of just 1.9 percent in the second quarter.

Despite the fact that just about everyone who is anyone had until very recently been saying that the figure will be 3 percent or more, Crutsinger wrote once that achieving that mediocre 1.9 percent result would constitute a "rebound," and another time that it would be "a significant rebound." So much for genuinely great expectations.

Japan's Retail Sales Dive; Press, Pundits Want Even More 'Stimulus'
By Tom Blumer | April 28, 2015 | 12:47 PM EDT

Japan just reported yet another awful retail sales result. Though it far exceeeded predictions of a 7.3 percent fall, the 9.7 percent March 2015 plunge compared to March 2014 doesn't reveal much, as March 2014 saw a splurge at the stores ahead of a steep sales tax increase which took effect on April 1. The really telling figure is the 1.9 percent seasonally adjusted dive compared to February.

Proving once again that they haven't learned, and probably never will, the press and financial commentators are really hoping that the government will respond, after two decades of Keynesian deficit spending and quantitative easing which have given the country slow growth, several recessions and a dispirited populace, with (good heavens) more stimulus.

AP's Crutsinger Ignores Recession Red Flag, But Has Obsessed Over Potential Recessions During GOP Administrations
By Tom Blumer | April 24, 2015 | 10:52 PM EDT

Today's Census Bureau report on durable goods orders was like a poorly made cake with delicious frosting: tasty at first, but awful when fully experienced.

The frosting in today's report was that overall orders increased in March by a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent. The trouble is that an important, widely recognized element of that report — what the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger vaguely described as "a key category that serves as a proxy for future business investment" — came in with yet another minus sign. That category's 0.5 percent decline, though noted, had far more significance than Crutsinger gave it.

Press Takes to Calling Japan's Most Recent Very Real Recession 'Technical'
By Tom Blumer | April 22, 2015 | 3:00 PM EDT

So when is a recession not a genuine recession? Apparently when it's "technical."

Unfortunately, the term "technical recession" appears to be well on the way to devolving into what has long been considered the real definition of a recession for the purpose of discounting its validity.

Bill Daley: 'Uneven' Recovery Has Only Benefited 'A Small Slice'
By Tom Blumer | April 13, 2015 | 4:07 PM EDT

Well, this is awkward.

Undermining most of what the business press has done to try to portray the post-recession U.S. economy as performing adequately under President Barack Obama, Bill Daley, Obama’s former chief of staff, told CNBC today that Hillary Clinton "can’t run as the third term of Barack Obama economically," because the recovery has been "uneven" and has only benefited "a small slice" of U.S. households.

AP Covers Up Japan's Likely Slippage Into Another Economic Contraction
By Tom Blumer | April 8, 2015 | 10:39 AM EDT

In an early Wednesday morning report containing an undercurrent of amazement and frustration that Japan's journey into Keynesianism and quantitative easing on steroids somehow hasn't worked, the Associated Press's Elaine Kurtenback wrote that a steep "April 1, 2014 sales tax hike ... triggered a brief recession and growth since has been flat."

The Land of the Rising Sun with the long-stagnating economy should be so lucky. Six days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported something Kurtenbach should have known when she submitted her writeup, namely that the country is once again on the brink of slipping into contraction:

Whiplash at AP: Economy, 'Really Durable' Last Week, Now 'Has Been Flagging For Months'
By Tom Blumer | April 4, 2015 | 10:27 AM EDT

Chickens came home to roost yesterday at the Associated Press.

The AP, the economy's most consistent cheerleader when a Democrat is in office, has not only been ignoring and downplaying the significance of disappointing and negative reports for several months, pinning its claim that all is well on the streak of seasonally adjusted 200,000-plus job gains seen during the past 12 months. It has also been pretending that all is really well. Just a week ago, the wire service's Marin Crutsinger falsely touted how the economy's "growth spurt" since the recession ended 5-1/2 years ago, while "sluggish," has been "one of the most durable since World War II."

AP Fantasy: U.S. Economic Growth Has Been 'Really Durable'
By Tom Blumer | March 27, 2015 | 11:27 PM EDT

The latest wet kiss from the business press thrown the Obama administration's way came from Martin Crutsinger at the Associated Press, aka the Administration's Press, late this afternoon.

Crutsinger, continuing to richly earn the "Worst Economics Writer" tag he received from National Review's Kevin Williamson two years ago, absurdly characterized the mediocre, pathetic economic peformance of the past 5-1/2 years — the worst post-World War II "recovery" on record, by miles — as "sluggish," but "one of the most durable." As traditionally and objectively measured, that statement is absolutely false, and he should know it.