The San Francisco Chronicle is proving the old bromide true. That's the one that goes: "a lie can be half way 'round the world before the truth can pull its boots on" (often incorrectly attributed to Mark Twain). Then there is another one Twain didn't originate but aptly fits here, "there are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics." The subject of this scoffing is that factoid the Old Media has been promulgating like gospel where "90% of Mexico's confiscated guns are from the U.S."
The problem with this "90%" refrain is that it just isn't true. There is no truth in the claim that 90% of the guns Mexican officials confiscate from drug dealers in Mexico are from the U.S.A. But, true or not, the Old Media use this line as if it were received truth. Suspicions are easily raised that they do so because it fits their ideological matrix perfectly and the truth of the matter does not fit the approved story line.
This 90% line appeared in The New York Times and many other sources earlier this year and still crops up even after William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott proved the claim to be fraudulent.
And now the SFChron can add its name to the list of fraudulent reporters using this discredited claim. In a story about how BATF and ICE officials are making plans to team up to more easily coordinate investigations of cross-border gun trafficking, the SFChron slipped in this paragraph:
Last year, Mexican authorities seized more than 12,000 weapons that were submitted to ATF for tracing. That compares with about 2,900 such weapons in 2007 and about 2,650 in 2006. Ninety percent of those weapons could be traced back to the United States, ATF spokesman Drew Wade said.
The SFChron simply got it wrong. The 90% is true, of course, but affixed to the 12,000 guns it is not. As La Jeunesse and Lott discovered back in April, the 90% number pertains to those guns that are "tracable" and that is not 12,000 guns but more like 6,000. You see, of the 12,000 guns given to the BATF, only 6,000 proved tracable and of that 6,000 5,114 were found to come from the U.S.A.
But the bigger fact is that of all the guns collected by the Mexican government, only 17% were traced to the U.S.A. According to La Jeunesse and Lott between 2007 and 2008, Mexico took in over 29,000 illegal guns and of that number only 5,114 proved to be from the U.S.
These facts make the bald 90% claim seem far less shocking. So why use the false numbers when the truth is easily known? Why do the denizens of the Old Media continue to use these discredited claims? That would be a good question, wouldn't it?



















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Why do the denizens of the
July 1, 2009 - 05:34 ET by motherbeltWhy do the denizens of the Old Media continue to use these discredited claims?
Because it suits their purposes, that's why. And they know that most people will never see the Lajeunesse/Lott item that proves it wrong.
If their claim is true, why is the ATF wasting time on two-bit gun dealers and gun shows, when there is apparently a bunch here who are selling literally thousands of guns across the border? Wouldn't that be a "cartel" all on its own, one that would make the illegal liquor mobsters of the 20's look like a bunch of pikers?
I didn't think it was physically possible, but this both sucks and blows. -Bart Simpson
Truth by Repetition
July 1, 2009 - 06:41 ET by allanfSay it often enough and it becomes true. The Chronicle at least made an attempt at an explanation so a thougtful reader could see that there was more to the statistic than they implied.
The ATF wastes it's time
July 1, 2009 - 07:14 ET by Paragrouperon two-bit gun dealers and gun shows because they are "convenient." Much more convenient than blaming other nations along Mexico's Southern border.
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking." - General George Patton Jr
It's nothing more than...
July 1, 2009 - 06:00 ET by Apodictic... a set-up for the Obeyme administration to subvert 2nd amendment rights in the United States. Nothing more - nothing less.
Liberals and wonderful Gun Numbers - they can't get it right.
July 1, 2009 - 06:57 ET by acaiguanaAh yes, the world of wonderful Liberal numbers again.
This number (90%) will never die. Once the Liberals catch hold of a number they never let go.
Again, I take the opportunity to nominate Trillion as the number of the year award. Get your Block Party organized to celebrate Trilliion this Summer as this number will surely replace Billion as the favorite for Congress in the foreseeable future.
They've found a number and by golly they are going to stick to it.
And that's the way it is.
ACA
...
Quoted from: 'Acaiguana notes from the Underground' (Soon to be at theaters near you)
Automatic weapons and grenades
July 1, 2009 - 08:13 ET by pockets64Considering that the biggest problem the Mexican authorities are having is with automatic weapons and grenades, how could the 90% number be true?
The newsies are so insulated from reality that they are believing their own tripe. They think all of us gun-toting types have closets full of automatic weapons.
Have you seen this Pockets
July 1, 2009 - 08:47 ET by general companyWeapon raids in TX
My Gov. thinks I am dangerous, so be careful
"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg
Humm trolling for WACO II, Why is Texas on this ATF list?
July 1, 2009 - 14:39 ET by upcountrywaterI guess because Janet II is on it...
How about finishing the fence, eh?
Machine guns are legal in Texas, only if you pay for a permit...
How many hand grenades dealers, are there in texas?
Reagan VS Liberalism
As Predicted
July 1, 2009 - 08:26 ET by slickwillie2001We all agreed at the time that in spite of the excellent debunking, the 90% meme would live on. It's just too attractive a data point for the liberals to worry about whether it's factual or not. We will see the same thing happen with the '72% of Americans in favor of government (ie socialized) healthcare' as well, as generated by a shoddy NYT poll. The '10% of Americans are gay' nonsense will never die either.
Liberalism depends on lies to survive, and they avoid debate at all costs.
The Lies Live on
July 1, 2009 - 08:45 ET by allanfAs long as Republicans accept these lies the lies will live on. The only way to challenge a lie is to call it a lie.
Don't let the facts get in the way....
July 1, 2009 - 08:54 ET by grumpyoldbI remember hearing some years ago, that the then head of Handgun Control Inc, admitted in front of Congress (when he finally had no choice) that if they don't have facts to support their position, they just make them up. Looks like the same thing all over again...
Why would amoral,
July 1, 2009 - 09:29 ET by mattmWhy would amoral, relativist, statists let the facts get in the way of promulgating their agenda?
No good lie goes unrepeated.
July 1, 2009 - 09:31 ET by nolotrippenNo good lie goes unrepeated.
jessieH
July 1, 2009 - 12:01 ET by jessieHjessieH If it comes from the media, you know it's got to be lies. I don't understand how journalists can just give up their ethics & just start spewing out lies. Now they are just hacks.
Statistical Scholarship
July 1, 2009 - 13:08 ET by Pilgrim1949Clinical studies have proved that institutions of scientific inquiry are hazardous environments for our cuddly, furry, albino rodent population.
Indeed, rigorous (or rigor mortis?) research has concluded that medical experimental laboratories are one of the leading causes of death among white rats.
So there you have it, ladies and gentlemen (and anyone in between, permanently or in transit).
And that's the way it is.