UPDATE--Nov. 4 6:35 AM: Mike Was Right
When Mike Allen appeared on Morning Joe today, the very first thing he did was tweak Joe Scarborough over the 3:1 odds, described below, that Joe had offered to those wanting to bet against Doug Hoffman. Joe responded that no one, including Allen, had taken up the bet. While Allen apparently didn't plunk down any dollars, it must be mentioned that at the end of the original segment, the Politico correspondent did say "we're in" on Scarborough's offer.
So let me acknowledge that in calling the race in the 23rd a toss-up, Mike Allen was right--not ridiculous.
Looking back, my two cents say the turning point might well have been the under-reported fact that when Hoffman, who does not live in the district, was interviewed by the Watertown newspaper, he demonstrated surprising unfamiliarity with issues important to the district including a major highway proposal and changes to the St. Lawrence Seaway. Not the kind of thing that gets national headlines, but important to people who live and work in the area. Candidates everywhere, take note.
The results should also be a rebuke to the New York Republican establishment. Remember that Dede Scozzafava was foisted on Republicans as their candidate by party chairmen meeting behind closed doors. If instead there had been a primary, Republicans would almost surely have chosen someone who would have won this race.
--------------------
When you're an MSMer, you're an MSMer all the way--even when faced with facts that might make you like, well, ridiculous . . .
Mike Allen, appearing on Morning Joe, has declared the NY-23rd race a "real toss-up" despite a new poll from a respected organization showing Doug Hoffman with a 17-point lead.
The claim by Allen, Politico's chief political correspondent, was so absurd that, on the spot, host Joe Scarborough offered 3:1 odds to Allen and anyone else wanting to place a few kopeks on Dem Bill Owens.
Story Continues Below Ad ↓MIKE ALLEN: This is a real toss-up, because there are a lot of absentee ballots that are already in, we don't know who those are for. And this could be the race that keeps Democrats from having a real black Tuesday.
JOE SCARBOROUGH: Would you do me a favor, Mike? As we show this poll that came out last night from Public Policy Polling. If you could find all, gather up all the people that say this race is a toss-up now, and give them my email address, and tell them I will give them 3:1 odds, I will be glad to take any bets--if that's legal--any bets on this race. It's not a toss-up. You know my email: tell your friends, anyone who wants to bet, they get 3:1 odds, and Joe's the bookie.
A long--and I mean protracted--silence from Allen ensues.
MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Mike?
ALLEN: We're in.
So Allen rates the race a "real toss-up" based on absentee ballots he admittedly knows nothing about? This is wishful MSM thinking at its worst.
As per its website, Public Policy Polling was rated by the Wall Street Journal one of the two most accurate pollsters in its analysis of swing state polls in 2008. It's story on the 23rd is entitled "Hoffman Primed For Dominant Victory."
So, Mike's "in" on Dem Owens. For how much?
—Mark Finkelstein is a NewsBusters contributing editor and host of Right Angle. Contact him at mark@gunhill.net.
Editor at Large
Comments Policy
I saw this and
November 2, 2009 - 07:30 ET by TexasMom0517Mike Allen looked like a deer in the headlights when Scarborough mocked him about a "toss up" and said he'd play bookie. Scarborough was on a roll this morning and I liked him better than I ever have.
Totally agree...
November 2, 2009 - 09:04 ET by unkeeafI'm not sure what happened to him over the weekend, but he sounded like the old Joe from three or four years ago. I regularly rip him on this site, but I actually sent him an him this morning telling how well I thought he did.
We need more of Joe defending the conservative position and less of Joe offering comments like this: "Well, Republicans are just as bad as Democrats."
MSM = PR firm for the Democrat Party
He was good with Carl
November 2, 2009 - 09:13 ET by SeashellHe was good with Carl Bernstein today as well.
In recent memory and years
November 2, 2009 - 10:40 ET by doug1950The GOP has been just as bad as the Dems. That is what got them into the mess they are in now along with those of us who have held our noses to vote for their candidates. Joe used to be my Rep and I respected him a great deal until he started drinking the kool aide at MSNBC. Now he is all over the place. Some days he sounds like his old self and others he sounds like a bleeding heart liberal. Mamby pamby comes to mind.
"I'm not sure what happened
November 2, 2009 - 23:03 ET by ckc1227"I'm not sure what happened to him over the weekend, but he sounded like the old Joe from three or four years ago."
I think it's called the finger to the wind technique.
final nail in Owens coffin: Biden campaigning in NY 23
November 2, 2009 - 07:34 ET by Jack BauerAs if the future wasn't looking bleak enough for Owns, the dumbest VP in history is out shaking hands and depressing his vote.
→ Biden to the rescue
November 2, 2009 - 07:50 ET by Cool ArrowI'd bew more concerned with all the Votes the administration could "create or save"
LYDSEXICS UNTIE!
ha ha. True. Is it a
November 2, 2009 - 08:01 ET by Jack Bauerha ha. True.
Is it a birdbrain? Is it a plain liar. Yes. It's Super Biden in his tights.
None of the above
November 2, 2009 - 10:13 ET by Willis_Leon_JohnsonIt's a piece of rotting meat in a Biden suit.
http://gjresult.com
Cool Arrow
November 2, 2009 - 09:25 ET by HoosierEmThat's great! Thanks for the laugh this morning.
A 'real toss-up'!
November 2, 2009 - 07:37 ET by Sergeant ROCKAbsentee ballots? Maybe Allen has been talking to one of his buddies at AKORN?
What's that e-mail address again?
"I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
George Mason
FOR ALLEN TO BE NON-PARTISAN WOULD MEAN NO MORE "HARDBALL" SPOTS
November 2, 2009 - 07:46 ET by SgthulkaAnd we all know what that means inside the beltway, don't we.
You're not surprised, are you, Mark?
November 2, 2009 - 07:55 ET by motherbeltThe other day The New Republic’s Peter Beinart raised the proposition that losing is actually good.....
Hope (for defeat) springs eternal.....
Politico has jumped the shark
November 2, 2009 - 08:06 ET by richb313Politico has jumped the shark. They used to be pretty good at the Inside the Beltway Reporting but I have noticed since "THE ONE" was elected that they have lost almost all of thier objectivity. This latest incident on "Morning Joe" might just be a Jump the Shark moment for them unless they can somehow clean up thier act.
Another web site I used to trust is Factcheck.org. If you look at the source material they use for thier pieces it has been degrading to the reputation they had built up. They are now using only sources that seem to confirm the Administrations claims. Occasionaly thy will say the Administration exaggerated some numbers or claims but they seem to be reluctant to say that they lied or deliberatly misled the public. It is sad but I can no longer trust that website.
Inside the Beltway is the problem
November 2, 2009 - 08:39 ET by KC MulvilleThey're probably reporting the opinion (inside the Beltway) accurately. It's that the opinion inside the Beltway is wrong.
I keep thinking about the line from All the President's Men: "Look, forget the myths the media's created about the White House--the truth is, these are not very bright guys."
What are the odds that
November 2, 2009 - 08:08 ET by moderncommentaries83What are the odds that ACORN and the Obama administration are scrambling to figure out ways to commit massive voter fraud so Hoffman doesn't win?
Watch the 2010 elections. Specifically for lots of come-from-behind wins for Democrats. It will be a litmus test for 2012...just how much they can get away with to keep Democrats in power permanently.
Color me skeptical, but I don't see any more fair elections in the United States. The One won't allow it...
Aut viam inveniam aut faciam
What are the odds that
November 2, 2009 - 08:35 ET by DontFeedTheTrollsWhat are the odds that ACORN and the Obama administration are
scrambling to figure out ways to commit massive voter fraud so Hoffman
doesn't win?
I think you have hit the nail on the head. The D's have used voter fraud to steal elections since before Kennedy. One of the facts about ACORN that seems to be underreported is that they register about 99.9% D voters. They clearly have no interest in a bi-partisan push to register voters and the MSM and the RNC have no quarrell with this, even though they receive federal funding. And this is just one of many corrupt D organizations registering voters and pushing mail in votes. Even Glenn Beck kind of skipped over this little fact.
D
Write your Congress and Senate and tell them what YOU think!
Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.
Yeah, I would love to see a
November 2, 2009 - 08:39 ET by BDYeah, I would love to see a chapter of ACORN in Killeen Texas. Registering military voters is anathema to their liberal cause.
Keep in mind
November 2, 2009 - 08:56 ET by retroconThese are states where dems control a lot of the local governments.
Perhaps in the next couple of elections, since public sentiment is not on the side of the libs, "absentee vote" becomes a codeword for an "ACORN ballot." They'll figure out a way, and as usual, since it won't be discovered until well after the election, the results will stand, and the Odministration will ensure no investigation happens.
Dang, i'm becoming a pessimist and conspiracy theorist.
you watch.
I was RIGHT
November 2, 2009 - 10:53 ET by moderncommentaries83Not NY-23, but in New Jersey, massive voter fraud the day before the election:
Aut viam inveniam aut faciam
What's the big deal?
November 2, 2009 - 10:57 ET by Sergeant ROCKIf you can count ballots that some democRAT forgot in the trunk of his car in Minnesota, anything is acceptable!
"I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
George Mason
Allen's problem
November 2, 2009 - 08:14 ET by Dim BulbAllen's problem seems to be a virus afflicting much of the MSM. It's called by experts the 2012 viral brain infection, but is known popularly as the stupidy of hope syndrome.
After tomorrow's election...
November 2, 2009 - 08:52 ET by Red Jeep...they may have the Whine Flu virus.
Guess Allen was stunned that anyone challenged his veracity after years of lying without challenge.
W1N1 Virus
November 2, 2009 - 08:59 ET by Sergeant ROCKWhat's the vaccine? A dose of commonsense?
"I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
George Mason
If you'll recall
November 2, 2009 - 09:07 ET by rjwest21Let's remember, Mike Allen was the guy who said that Palin's (and other GOPers') endorsement of Hoffman was "crazy" and "suicidal".
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2009/10/27/politicos-allen-republicans-crazy-suicidal-support-hoffman-over-sc
Hey, Newsbusters gurus, now's the time to remind your readers of that & help put the conventional wisdom about Mike Allen's credibility where it belongs: the toilet.
This is nothing. You should live here.
November 2, 2009 - 09:38 ET by YahooWatcherI live outside of Albany, NY. I'm not in the 23rd but I do own property there. You folks should see the local leftist media's take on this race, that is if you can find it anymore now that Hoffman is way up.
The following themes have emerged:
No room for moderates in the GOP and the GOP will lose another seat from it's NY delegation.
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=860495
Even is the 23rd, NJ, and VA go the GOP's (or Conservative) way, these races aren't a reflection of Obama:
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=860371
As I said at the start, local coverage of the 23rd has dropped to nothing now that it looks like Hoffman is way out in front.
Don't Tax Me, Bro.
Union Supporter?
November 2, 2009 - 10:07 ET by SimJimLaughably the AP claims Scozzafava was opposed by conservatives because she "supports" union rights. No mention of her "support" for elimination of voting privacy. Typical.
Your the greatest Keith
November 2, 2009 - 09:43 ET by TomoramaThis is the same rump-swab that is on Bathtub boys show all the time and whatever Keith says a "Your exactly right Keith and your the greatest" is soon to follow.
Has Olbermann EVER had a dissenting voice on his show to challenge him LIKE HANNITY DOES ALL THE TIME??????
Just the STUNNED look on his face that someone on this network actually said he was full of it, PRICELESS.
Dumocrats are going down and going down harder than a Lewinsky, but beware of ACORNS wrath after this as they WILL be unleashed by the liar in chief.
A great man once said, YOU only get out of life what YOU put into it, he obviously wasn't a liberal.
The absentee ballots are the key
November 2, 2009 - 09:46 ET by c5thenThe DNC is counting od ACORN to come through for them and steal this election too. However, they can only make up a few % points and the current 17% difference is way too much.
I wonder how many hard-core "party is everything" republicans in upstate NY Scozzafava pissed off when she endorsed the democrat?
Throw 'da bums out!!!
Before it's too late.
www.loyaltoliberty.com
In today's Newsday they ran
November 2, 2009 - 09:57 ET by Gat New YorkIn today's Newsday they ran an AP article on the 23rd Congressional District race on page 2 to highlight the endorsement of Owens and mislabeled the large photo. The caption said Owens was the Conservative and Hoffman the Democrat.
It's not like Newsday editors have much to do anymore since they have almost no news staff left and use wire service, you would think they get a major photo caption right.
Speaking of ACORN...
November 2, 2009 - 09:58 ET by Patrick MichaelSpeaking of ACORN, who is surprised that the ACORN connection to the Al Frankin seat quickly became a non-story?
Stay Free!!!
It's a toss up alright.
November 2, 2009 - 10:17 ET by Willis_Leon_JohnsonThe problem arises when everytime it gets tossed up, Hoffman keeps floating on top.
http://gjresult.com
Tossin' and spinnin'...
November 2, 2009 - 10:21 ET by Sergeant ROCKWhen Hoffman wins by 17+% it will be a 'squeaker'... or a 'slim margin'... or a 'narrow victory'...
"I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
George Mason
...and has nothing to do with Obama's policies...
November 2, 2009 - 10:49 ET by Prester John....or the joke of a Congress we have.
It was all about local issues, bad Dem candidate, it's a Republican district anyway blah, blah, blah.
November 2, 2009 - 10:30 ET by jessieHLet's hope they check those absentee ballots for fraud, this time. The last thing we need is another fraudulent election,like we had a year ago.
Cheat-proof margins!
November 2, 2009 - 11:14 ET by slickwillie2001Republicans always have to win by margins significant enough to overcome democratics' cheating. An opinion poll doesn't account for the cheating because Pew and Gallup can't call the dead people, and don't account for multiple votes from democratics.
Mike Allen is a mouse of a
November 2, 2009 - 11:18 ET by d1carterMike Allen is a mouse of a man. When I see anything he says or writes, I ignore it. He is one reason I don't read Politico.
This is a real toss-up, because there are a lot of absentee ball
November 2, 2009 - 11:34 ET by MaratACORN: creating and saving votes one vote at a time!
It worked in Minnesota
As per its website,
November 2, 2009 - 11:45 ET by Jack BauerSo I just want to get this right. The likely winner will be replacing a Republican deemed so acceptable to the Maxist Marxist Obama that he joined his administration.
And somehow, to the State Controlled Mainstream Media, this proves that conservatives are marginalizing the Republican party, and diminishing its popularity.
Sure. That makes SENSE.
Jack
November 2, 2009 - 17:53 ET by MrShyThe GOP is dying.... it's DOOOOOOMED!!!..... With every step they take, they fracture more and more and the fringe just becomes more irrelevaaaaaaaant. Stick a fork in one of the two remaining dominant parties here. It's a singular Democrat/progressive nation now!!!!!! Woot woot!
Well, that's the word they're tirelessly peddling all over town on this side of the pond. :p
Got your reply post to me, btw, and was going to respond but got sidetracked. But yes, it's all about envy and jealousy, isn't it? The UK and so many countries mock us for our "excesses" and superficiality, and yet every time I travel, I see more of our culture there than HERE.
I loved it! Thanks for this one as it made my day... still
November 2, 2009 - 15:36 ET by pahuberlaughing!
pah... Allen can't help
November 2, 2009 - 15:41 ET by bigtimerpah...
Allen can't help it...he really is that dumb.
He does as told...sometimes so timidly it's humorous.
...and the Spin Cycle continues on...and on...and on...
'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart
ACORN/SEIU/ and what they
November 2, 2009 - 17:38 ET by bigtimerACORN/SEIU/ and what they are doing in NJ....anyone watching Beck today...
He just had on John Fund and what they are doing witht he absentee ballots...well, seems have already done.
Going into hospitals, illegals and such as well to fill these out and voting for them basically...etc.
Seems the left are ensured they have enough...
No wonder Allen seems to know this info. from behind the scenes...I know one thing...there had better be some repub $$$ behind this and a major challenge instead of the 'oh we just give in and move on' mode.
'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart
BT
November 2, 2009 - 17:56 ET by MrShyWow, if that's true.... Beck is really doing a yeoman's job. I think, thanks to him, there will be no let-up on the stuff revealed about this disgusting organization.
Crush them. And crush any front groups hiding behind them.
Shy... ...Yeah...I keep
November 2, 2009 - 18:09 ET by bigtimerShy...
...Yeah...I keep getting interrupted here at home, but I think he also mentioned good old jail/prison system as well...sure they've hit the nursing homes and mental institutions...miracle they haven't hit the school system as well.
Whatever and where ever they will do this if the can they will...as many times as possible.
This has better be challenged.
'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart
Hmmm...wonder how many
November 2, 2009 - 17:54 ET by RR GOPHmmm...wonder how many votes ACORN will have to manufacture in order to make up that difference?
One of the 34% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 86% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory.
→ RR GOP
November 2, 2009 - 18:02 ET by Cool ArrowAs I mentioned earlier, they will "create or save" as many votes as needed.
ACORN will seat Corzine with early voting. New Jersey will once again get the Governor it deserves.
New Bumper sticker
Then I heard another voice from heaven say:
"Come out of her, my people,
so that you will not share in her sins
→ Cool Arrow
November 2, 2009 - 18:05 ET by RR GOPThe sad thing is, they easily can get away with it. What the heck is anybody going to do about it if they do?
One of the 34% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 86% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory.
→ Absolutely NUTHIN!
November 2, 2009 - 18:10 ET by Cool ArrowIn a way, I'd like to see the NJ race so laughably swindled that "gettin' Jerseyed" is in the dictionary before February like "Borked".
In a very big way, that is.
LYDSEXICS UNTIE!
Re Stealing NJ
November 2, 2009 - 19:37 ET by slickwillie2001Don't forget the military ballots, in NJ and VA the democratics will make a concerted effort to lose them.
Most of these winners of Sunday's caption contest are on that great democratic party tradition of stealing votes:
http://wizbangblog.com
The military votes seem
November 2, 2009 - 19:45 ET by bigtimerThe military votes seem never to count...ever.
They should be first and foremost as far as I am concerned, past and present....anywhere in this world.
It has been a disgrace.
'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart
Man Child
November 2, 2009 - 21:44 ET by SkipperMLMDid you see the look on Mike Allen when Joe made the bet comment? He was steaming...I thought he had blown a gasket. He absolutely spaced out like a kid where someone just stepped on his sand castle he spent all day on. Mika had to bring him back from La-La Land. I think a tear squeezed out as he wanted to tear Joe's face off for calling him out in his absurdity.
Another PRICELESS moment in "Morning Joe"
Hate to be a wet rag here,
November 2, 2009 - 23:10 ET by ckc1227Hate to be a wet rag here, but I seriously doubt this is a 17 point race. I think it might be closer than some think. I hope I'm wrong, tthough.
Mike Allen - About to Cry?
November 13, 2009 - 22:31 ET by chuckkI know this is superficial, but when I look at Mike Allen's lips, doesn't he always look like he's about to cry?
Maybe it's that weird Penn-saw-vain-wa accent...